Wednesday, 5 March 2008

Foresight is better than hindsight

It's easy to spot patterns, trends, mistakes made or good opportunities when looking back. Everything is so much clearer and less chaotic in the rear view mirror. The universe of the past has been solidified into a single series of chronological events - that which has come to pass. Looking forwards, no such single universe exists. There is a view of an infinite number of universes still to split off as every decision made. Certain decisions will take you to very similar looking places. I doubt the universe in which you chose to have cereal for breakfast will look a whole lot different from the one where you decide to have toast for breakfast. Unless there's a million dollar prize in the cereal box or the bread has been contaminated in a rare fluke and you die in agony whilst waiting for the kettle to boil. You never know, looking forward. The innocuous decisions may turn out to be important and the important decisions may well turn out to be not so crucial after all.

I like to think that I have no problem making decisions. I do not make decisions by taking fluke events into account. Decisions are calculated risks and having a keen interest in mathematics means that I generally tend to know the odds. I cannot foresee every possibility and I try my best not to get bogged down by improbabilities. I also try not to simply blunder through life. I think about the consequences of my actions before I take any action. I am aware of any risks I take before I commit to a specific course. I am aware that there are always unforeseeable consequences, but I'm happy to wing those.

In playing warcraft I find that this type of thinking is encouraged. The game is fraught with decision making. With every possible bonus comes risk. Do I attack the mob that's camped around the piece of ore I want? Will the time it takes me be worth the reward? Will the risk be worth the reward? Is it possible to achieve, or will I simply waste my time whilst I die trying?

It is possible and I suspect a frequent occurrence that players blunder their way to the top when leveling. Particularly younger and inexperienced players. I am pretty sure that I often blunder from one level to the next, simply because it's easier and possible. It's also easier and possible to level up by only seeing the immediate future. I bet plenty of players simply play from one quest to the next. That too, is an option that's available for the taking.

I choose the road less travelled. Or what I see as the road less travelled. I prefer to apply a little foresight. I know where I will be spending all 61 of my talent points by the time I reach level 10. I know which professions go well together and try to keep my professions at the same level as my actual level or slightly ahead. I began thinking about finances my level 40 mount from level 1 and at level 30 started to think about affording my level 60 mount. I like to plan ahead. I love that the game allows me to plan ahead and generally rewards me for it. I love that it doesn't make the decisions for me and isn't lenient towards the mistakes I make. I have spent gold to unlearn talent points.

Azeroth is a great place to learn about foresight and hindsight. It teaches lessons about regret and responsibility. Looking back, there are always things I would have done differently, but I'm proud to say that I stick by every decision I have made with the knowledge available to me at the time. In Azeroth, you cannot have it all. You have to either carve out the road you want to walk from the options available to you, or you have to learn to put up with the road that is shaped by your short sightedness. If you do not choose your road, it will be chosen for you. If you choose, you get to play the odds and be in charge. If you neglect to set a course, you leave the fate of your character in the hands of chance. I'm a master of my fate, captain of my soul kind of person. Foresight is better than hindsight.

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